UA-138051460-1

What the Experts Are Saying About Economic Slowdown

Dated: 03/23/2020

Views: 42

Economic Slowdown: What the Experts Are Saying

Economic Slowdown: What the Experts Are Saying | MyKCM

More and more economists are predicting a recession is imminent as the result of the pullback in the economy caused by COVID-19. According to the National Bureau of Economic Research:

“A recession is a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales.”

Bill McBride, the founder of Calculated Riskbelieves we are already in a recession:

“With the sudden economic stop, and with many states shutting down by closing down schools, bars and restaurants…my view is the US economy is now in a recession (started in March 2020), and GDP will decline sharply in Q2. The length of the recession will depend on the course of the pandemic.”

How deep will it go?

No one knows for sure. It depends on how long it takes to beat this virus. Goldman Sachs anticipates we will see a difficult first half of the year, but the economy will recover in the second half (see below):Economic Slowdown: What the Experts Are Saying | MyKCMGoldman also projects we’ll have “further strong gains in early 2021.”

This aligns with the projection from Wells Fargo Investment Institute:

“Once the virus infection rate peaks, we expect a recovery to gain momentum into the final quarter of the year and especially into 2021.”

Again, no one knows for sure how long the pandemic will last. The hope is that it will resolve sometime over the next several months. Most agree that when it does, the economy will regain its strength quickly.

*QUARTER 1 DATA FROM GOLDMAN SACHS WAS UPDATED FROM 0% TO -0.2% ON 3/17/20 AFTER THE INITIAL RELEASE.

Bottom Line

This virus is not only impacting the physical health of Americans, but also the financial health of the nation. The sooner we beat it, the sooner our lives will return to normal.

Blog author image

Eileen O'Reilly - DRE#01928600

Raised in Auckland, New Zealand by Irish immigrant parents, Eileen O’Reilly inherited both a can-do attitude and a deep appreciation for the value of hard work that have helped her to become one of ....

Latest Blog Posts

Stay at Home Entertainment

At Home Entertainment for the Whole FamilyOne of the best things that we can do right now to protect both ourselves and our friends and neighbors is to stay home. Unfortunately, there are only so

Read More

Transform your Room Using Accent Wall

Ideas for Accent WallsHere are some ideas to transform your room using accent walls An accent wall can totally transform a room, taking it from boring and drab to bold and exciting. Accent walls

Read More

Tips on Working From Home

New to Working From Home? Our Top TipsWorking from home can be a challenge, especially when you’re not used to it. There are a lot of distractions that can interfere with your work, sometimes

Read More

Getting Organic Food without Spending Extra

ORGANIC FOOD ON A BUDGETOrganic food usually tastes better, and is better for you, but it can also be very expensive compared to non-organic products. Organic food can cost nearly 50 percent more,

Read More